Wondering about the economy, housing and tech stocks

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MSN Money - That jobs report was no reason to celebrate
wow! contrast this with what Cringely was saying. Bill says

"For close to nine months now, I have been detailing all the inventory and excess capacity that's piled up in that industry. Recently, I've been able to chronicle the slowdown in end-demand that will only exacerbate existing problems in the chip sector, and, at some point, will create an implosion in its stock prices. "
I think this is true. I haven't bought a new processor in better than 9 months. My last hardward purchase was compact flash memory for my pre-christmas purchase of a Canon EOS 20D digital SLR which is the most incredible toy I've ever bought. I'm going to think about this, long term, Bill's analysis is not good for the housing market, short term, Cringely is saying VC funding is going to be thrown at anything that moves so the funds don't have to pay back the management fees they already spent. It was something like 3 Billion dollars if I remember correctly!

"Liquidity seeks an inflating asset (not a deflating asset). When the Fed pumped liquidity into the system to salvage the TMT (technology, media and telecom) sector, that liquidity was redirected toward the residential-mortgage market, thereby extending the housing-market bubble beyond its normal cycle. This price appreciation allowed the consumer to prolong a debt-induced consumption binge (i.e., the consumer drew down the appreciated equity to finance his/her newfound higher standard of living). However, we have now entered a period where liquidity will increasingly be withdrawn from the residential-mortgage market, and thus, we are at the onset of experiencing price deflation in this asset class."

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This page contains a single entry by klsh published on February 16, 2005 9:50 AM.

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